In 2023, the U.S. Department of Defense unveiled an ambitious strategy to deploy 1,000 satellites over the next decade. Simultaneously, the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO), which oversees the United States’ spy satellites, plans to quadruple its fleet, currently consisting of a few dozen satellites. This rapid expansion is feasible because of significant reductions in satellite manufacturing costs and advancements in launch technologies. These new satellites, primarily intended for surveillance, will provide the United States with a “constant stare” capability, enabling near-continuous monitoring of targets. This capability, combined with advances in artificial intelligence (AI), big data, and cloud computing, will facilitate the processing of vast amounts of data, highlighting critical information for human review.
Strategic Advantages of Enhanced Surveillance
The enhanced ability to track troop movements and weapons placements in real-time could significantly bolster the U.S.’s capacity to deter and disrupt surprise attacks. Current systems, which update less frequently, risk missing crucial developments. However, the influx of data from these superpowered surveillance systems also poses new risks. The sheer volume of information could overwhelm officials, leading to decision fatigue and potential micromanagement. Additionally, if adversaries acquire similar technologies, they could threaten the U.S. military’s operational secrecy, complicating troop movements.
Transforming the National Security Council’s Processes
To adapt to this new era, the Biden administration needs to reform how the National Security Council (NSC) processes and utilizes information. The anticipated expansion of space-based surveillance will fundamentally transform U.S. military operations globally, necessitating prompt adjustments in strategy and decision-making frameworks.
Historical Context: Expensive Soda Straws
The quest for real-time intelligence is longstanding, dating back to early conflicts where there was always a tension between gathering extensive information and delivering it swiftly to those who needed it. For instance, Civil War cavalry scouts could gather intelligence but faced lengthy delays in reporting back. Even though they can transmit images nearly instantly, modern surveillance drones risk missing important developments if they are not positioned immediately over the target.
Evolution of Space-Based Intelligence
Space-based intelligence assets have grappled with similar challenges. Early spy satellite systems like the CIA’s Project CORONA could take pictures of Soviet land, but it took days or weeks for the film canisters to reach Earth. The 1970s saw the introduction of large satellites that could beam digital images back to users, addressing time constraints but still limited by the small number of satellites, which resulted in significant gaps in coverage.
Currently, the Pentagon and the intelligence community operate a limited number of highly advanced, expensive satellites capable of collecting and transmitting high-quality intelligence. But these “exquisite” systems, each costing hundreds of millions of dollars, are not enough to address the issue of scale. As a result, the U.S. effectively views the Earth through a series of high-fidelity soda straws, unable to watch all points of interest simultaneously.
Technological Advancements: Cheaper Eyes in the Sky
A confluence of advanced technologies—reusable rockets, miniaturized semiconductors, and high-powered AI—is enabling the United States to achieve constant-stare capability. The cost of rocket launches has plummeted from $27,000 per pound during the NASA space shuttle era to about $1,200 per pound today. Miniaturization has also allowed for the creation of small, advanced satellites. Additionally, AI is enhancing the ability of humans and machines to work together, with algorithms quickly sifting through data to identify relevant information for analysts.
Private Sector Innovations
Private companies like SpaceX and Rocket Lab have harnessed these technologies to build “megaconstellations” of satellites, providing intelligence to various entities. These companies can update open-source, planet-scale databases multiple times daily, offering fresh intelligence from almost any global location within 30 minutes. For example, the company Planet operates about 200 breadbox-sized satellites that image the entire Earth daily. In early 2023, when a Chinese spy balloon flew over the United States, the AI company Synthetaic used Planet’s database to trace the balloon’s path from China to a potential launch site in Hainan Island within a short time frame.
Government Initiatives to Match Private Sector Progress
As the private sector advances, the U.S. government is striving to keep pace with its plans to significantly expand its satellite fleet. The Department of Defense envisions a future with no coverage gaps, regardless of weather, 24/7. The NRO’s planned satellite fleet expansion would result in ten times as many images as today. Both the Pentagon and NRO also intend to use commercial satellite collections to enhance their capabilities, enabling comprehensive, uninterrupted surveillance.
Future Surveillance Capabilities
With the current limited number of advanced satellites, it can take days for a satellite to revisit the same point. A megaconstellation of hundreds or thousands of satellites would eliminate this delay, allowing for continuous monitoring of targets. This capability would reduce the need to prioritize specific targets, enabling comprehensive tracking of objects and sites. Algorithms and intelligence analysts could identify patterns of normal and abnormal activity, watching everything from Chinese nuclear submarine pens to Iranian Revolutionary Guard facilities.
Implications for Military Operations
Combined with next-generation hypersonic weapons, these new satellites would enable the U.S. military to swiftly and with less risk to service members hit distant targets. Commanders could monitor vast regions like the western Pacific, tracking all ships in the battle space. This would facilitate unprecedented coordination across military services and with allies during complex operations.
Deterrence and Strategic Implications
China and Russia leverage today’s unstable information environment to threaten weaker regional opponents. Constant-stare systems might provide sufficient coverage to anticipate their aggressive actions. Publicizing these technological capabilities could serve as a deterrent, complicating surprise attack plans.
Risks of Overreliance on Technology
However, with new opportunities come new dangers. Overreliance on constant-stare technology could lead to complacency. Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7 demonstrated the pitfalls of over-dependence on technology. Israel’s high-tech surveillance system gave its leaders false confidence, leading to a redeployment of troops and a subsequent security breach. The U.S. government could make similar errors if it overly depends on space-based intelligence. AI systems processing satellite data can also make mistakes, potentially misidentifying civilian objects as military targets or missing critical threats.
Overloading Decision-Making Processes
The vast amount of data could also influence how the U.S. government operates, potentially leading to micromanagement and a compulsion to act on perceived threats. The NSC could become overwhelmed with real-time information, necessitating a review of its processes and staffing to manage the influx effectively.
Adversaries and Emerging Threats
The Department of Defense must also consider the risk of adversaries acquiring similar technologies. Sensitive U.S. operations could be exposed, complicating strategic plans. Concepts like the Marine Corps’s Expeditionary Advanced Base Operations, which rely on dispersing forces to remote locations, might become less effective if adversaries can constantly monitor troop movements.
China is already developing such capabilities. Changguang Satellite Technology aims to deploy a megaconstellation capable of imaging any point on Earth every ten minutes by 2030. Given the close ties between the public and private sectors in China, the Chinese military is likely to have access to this collection, posing a significant threat to U.S. operations.
Escalation Risks with Nuclear Powers
Constant-stare systems could also escalate nuclear tensions. China and Russia are sensitive to U.S. intelligence advantages and might perceive continuous surveillance as a threat to their nuclear deterrents. This could lead to strategic instability, with potential preemptive actions in a nuclear crisis. The U.S. must anticipate sophisticated countermeasures from adversaries to protect their mobile assets.
Preparing for the Unblinking Future
To prepare for this future, the Biden administration should develop guidelines for training algorithms used in satellite-image recognition, ensuring they are trained with credible and accurate data. Limiting access to near-real-time intelligence to frontline analysts might be necessary to prevent data overload.
Adapting NSC Processes
The NSC should review and adapt its processes to handle the increased intelligence flow. The national security adviser should direct an internal review to assess the council’s capacity and necessity for real-time information. The National Intelligence Strategy, which directs the intelligence community’s tasking, collecting, processing, exploitation, and dissemination, should be informed by the findings.
Enhancing Military Camouflage and Deception
The U.S. military must also develop strategies to operate under constant surveillance. Advances in camouflage, concealment, denial, and deception are essential. The Department of Defense should explore nontraditional countermeasures, leveraging AI, behavioral science, and materials science to blend troops and assets into the environment and confuse adversaries’ image-recognition algorithms.
Strategic Investments for Future Conflicts
A new strategy should inform investment decisions, prioritizing next-generation camouflage systems and tactics over items that will become obsolete in this new environment. Space-based intelligence is developing at a breakneck pace, so becoming ready for this unimaginably bright future is crucial.
The U.S. is on the cusp of a new era in space-based surveillance, offering unprecedented capabilities and challenges. As the Department of Defense and intelligence community expand their satellite fleets, they must also address the potential risks and adapt their strategies accordingly. By investing in advanced technologies and refining decision-making processes, the U.S. can maintain its strategic edge while mitigating the dangers of constant-stare surveillance. The future of intelligence and military operations depends on navigating these complexities with foresight and innovation.
